This page is part of the homeplace advertisement-free web portal. (It is politics-free too, except for 3 sections which are obviously not.)

Construction of this page began in January 2006 as I began to document my dread fear that the US would attack Iran with nuclear weapons!

On this page you can find:

In addition, there is small fraction of the large pile of available information supporting the following assertions:

You are not entirely helpless to speak out against an attack on Iran:

for example, you can go to

to express yourself. (The site has evidently become inactive.)

Here is the geography:

Here is an Encyclopedic summary of the Nuclear part.
This blogger has used extensive references into WikiPedia. His encyclopedic summary looks pretty balanced.

And here are the Chronological Postings.
(At the bottom of this page are the earliest items.)

2004 Prosecute our Scientists for Collaboration?!

In 2004 the US government tried to ban every American scientist on the planet from having anything to do with any Iranian research, threatening to prosecute individual scientists for “collaboration” with Iran if they did so. The ban was openly repudiated by the American Institute of Physics and other groups, saying it violated freedom of speech, and the scheme was essentially dropped in favor of a toned down version.

2010 Aug 8 – Let's talk about an attack on Iran

The United States could "win" by dropping hundreds of nuclear weapons on Iran's military bases, nuclear facilities and industrial centers and killing 5 to 10 million people, but short of that, nothing works.

The end would be an embarrassing retreat by the United States, and the definitive establishment of Iran as the dominant power of the gulf region. That was the outcome of every war game the Pentagon played, and Mullen knows it.

So there is a plan for an attack on Iran, but Mullen would probably rather resign than put it into action. It is all bluff. More.

2010 Feb 13 – Israel Encouraged to Use Nuclear EMP to Disable Iran

In 1962 the U.S. conducted an atmospheric test called Starfish Prime. In it, a 1.4 megaton weapon was detonated 400 kilometers above Johnson Island in the Pacific. The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from that test knocked out street lights in Hawaii, 900 miles away! The Soviets held similar tests and discovered EMP effects can penetrate far underground.

If Israel used one of its Jericho III missiles to detonate 400 kilometers above north central Iran there would be no blast or radiation effects on the ground. In fact, if the strike was at noon on a sunny day the people below would not know it happened except their lights would go out, cars stop, fridges die, power line transformers short out, refineries shut down, and yes, those uranium enrichment centrifuges in caverns stop spinning. This bloodless annihilation, coupled with a selective cyber attack, would freeze Iran for decades.” More.

2009 Sept 27 - B-2 with Bigger Bunker Busters - Soon

The Pentagon has brought forward to December 2009 the target-date for producing the first 15-ton super bunker-buster bomb (GBU-57A/B) Massive Ordinance Penetrator, which can reach a depth of 60.09 meters underground before exploding.”

Earliest date for the accelerated Pentagon program to produce a super bunker buster bomb mounted on a stealth bomber is December 2009 or January 2010. “This ... is three years ahead of its original schedule.” [ahead of its most recent original schedule maybe!]

The report .

By comparing to the 2007 July 26 report item, below, it seems that virtually no progress has been made in the last 2 years on fitting a B2 to carry these MOPs.

20081029 The US and EU Have Stopped Attacking Iran

Why are oil prices dropping this season? It is ... simple: the US and EU have ceased attacking Iran. The threat of war is rapidly fading there. The US is confining its attacks to Pakistan and Syria, non-oil nations. It is leaving the Persian pussy alone. The guys at the top know perfectly well, if they make oil expensive right now, the global economy will continue to collapse. So they are tweaking foreign policy statements and actions to create the illusion of peace.

If the price of oil drops below $50 a barrel, expect more wars in the Middle East. Excerpted from this.

20080902 Israel within Georgia

According to the source for the below, there is a Tel Aviv-Tbilisi military axis which has been agreed to and is supported at the highest levels within Bush administration.

20080815 Iraqi Shi'ite assassination teams being trained in Iran - AP

20080804 Iran Tests Anti-Ship Weapon With 300-Kilometer Range

For the significance of this, see See 2004 Oct 26, below. See also paragraphs 6 through 9 here. Note that the 300 Km range is a strong hint to the US and Israel that this is a Yakhonts-class rather than a Sunburn class missile. Though it's hard to find current information concerning this ship vs. missile arms race, this article, updated in April 2008, surveys vulnerabilities of U.S. Aircraft Carriers.

2008 July – False Flag Attack By Israel Possible, to Incite US Attack on Iran

2008 July 10 – Israeli Planes use US bases in Iraq

During June and July, Israeli war planes have landed and taken off from US military airports within Iraq. More.

2008 June 29 – Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran

Top journalist Seymour Hersch - latest report here.

2008 May 20 – Fallon Could Possibly Prevent This Catastrophe

A final desperate appeal to ousted Commander “Fox” Fallon (see below – March 12 2008) here.

2008 April 30 – Bald Truths

Almost the only source which will leave the English-speaker with a deeper understanding of the U.S. animus toward Iran writes again on this subject. Not for readers with a queasy stomach!

Full article here. Refreshing? See this. (This is an example item from the other source, alluded-to above.)

2008 April 21 – Stuflebeem Out

On April 21, 2008, the US Navy announced that Stufflebeem had received a written reprimand and had requested to retire from active duty. Stufflebeem was Commander of the 6th Fleet (Mediterranean Sea) prior to his demotion on March 21, 2008. He was known to be a critic of the administration’s war plans.

2008 March 20 - US Declares War on Iran



2008 March 12 - Top U.S. Commander in Middle East Resigns

Adm. William Fallon, described as the only man standing between the Bush administration and war with Iran was allowed to retire March 11.

2007 December 3 - Finally, A Voice of Reason!!

A day after the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iranso completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate” President Bush said that “our policy remains the same.

John R. Bolton, Bush's former ambassador to the United Nations dismissed it by terming the NIE "this week's intelligence".

But the fact is that the main argument for a military conflict with Iran has been invalidated.

Invalidated by the coordinated judgments of the US Intelligence Community made up of 16 intelligence agencies. Reference.

2007 October 25 - Russia Asserts Hegemony - Again

Putin: “Running around like a madman with a razor blade, waving it around, is not the best way to resolve the situation.”

2007 October 19 - Military Resistance Forced the new Iran Strike Posture

Some time ago the Bush administration shifted from the military option of a massive strategic attack against Iran to a surgical strike option against selected targets associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

This was prompted not by new alarm at Iran's role in Iraq but by the explicit refusal last December of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to an unprovoked attack on Iran's nuclear facilities!

The reorientation of the military threat was first publicly signaled in Bush's Jan. 10 speech. Buried in the troop "surge"speech were accusations that Iran was "allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq" and "providing material support for attacks on American troops."

The Joint Chiefs were later joined in opposition by Admiral William Fallon, the incoming CENTCOM commander.

Fallon had indicated privately that he was determined to prevent an attack on Iran and even prepared to resign to do so.

Fallon and other military leaders are however unlikely to refuse a very limited strike that would be presented as a response to a specific incident in Iraq in which the deaths of US soldiers could be attributed to Iranian policy.


2007 October 18 - The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran

Two former high-ranking policy experts from the Bush Administration say the U.S. has been gearing up for a war with Iran for years, despite claiming otherwise. It'll be Iraq all over again. More: original , annotated.

2007 October - Russia Asserts Caspian Hegemony

Putin attended a conference of the Caspian Sea littoral nations (Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan). There or elsewhere he has recently said:

2007 Sept 27 - US, NATO and Israel Deploy Nukes directed against Iran

Michel Chossudovsky writes a detail-packed article with the above title. He says:

References: Chossudovsky, Madsen

2007 Sept 6 - Israeli Jets over Syria

The actual events of September 6, 2007 may have been an interrupted Israeli raid on the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities using tactical nuclear weapons. This raid may not have been authorized by the top levels of the Israeli political system (or in other words, it may have been a rogue operation.)

Ridiculous, right? Well, go read the last 5 paragraphs of this. Then, if the above begins to seem possible, cycle back up into the article to see the facts and evidence that led this guy to such a conjecture.

2007 Aug 18 - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become a Likely Target

Time/CNN reports that:

2007 July 26 - Iran Will be Using its Nuclear Power Plant - Soon

Iran expects to have nuclear power next year. (Either early next year or late next year depending on who you listen to.) Russia has resumed technical support to get this done. This means:

2007 July 26 - B-2 with Bigger Bunker Busters - Soon

B-2 Stealth Bombers will get new bomb racks that can hold/deliver two 30,000 pound bombs.

These Massive Ordnance – Penetrator (MOP) bombs are intended to bust bunkers like the ones Iran has and is extending. These bombs have 5,300 pounds of explosives: most of the total weight, 30,000 pounds, is hardened steel!

The 7 month contract was signed June 1, so early in 2008 our executive branch will give itself a non-nuclear option for taking out Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

At the end of this very lucid 3 minute video on busting bunkers is a description of how these MOPs might be used:

2007 July 17 - Buildup in the Gulf – Way beyond what we need to get out.

More and more watchful people think they see an attack on Iran. This guy here sees:

2007 June 15 - The Escalator to War

Details here.

2007 June 3 - Reuters Reveals Bias

Reuters repeats once again the totally discreditedwipe off the mapphrase! In fact, Reuters manages to introduce a new distortion: “bring an end to Israelinstead of something about witnessing destruction of the Zionist regime.

More on the Reuters article here.

2007 May 27 - Iran Sliding out from Under the Dollar

"About 70 percent of our oil export income is now in currencies other than the U.S. dollar," Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, international affairs director of the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), told Reuters.

2007 May 9 - Is the US About to Attack Iran?

“It sure looks like it.” Here is calling our attention to non-crackpot sources that say so.

2007 April 1 - Iran Reciprocates; Blair Escalates

2007 March 23 - Navy Lacks Plan to Defend Against 'Sizzler' Missile


2007 February 21 - US Preparations for Invading Iran are Complete


2007 February 11 -

2007 February 4 - Situation Summary

Iran: A War Is Coming

2007 January 30 -

The United States could use its two air force bases in Bulgaria and one at Romania's Black Sea coast to support an attack on Iran in April, says the Turkish Daily News. Details

2007 January 15 - Situation Summary

Thinking the Unthinkable

2007 January - "reduce the risk of radioactive fallout"

See this little movie to get an idea how likely we are to "reduce the risk of radioactive fallout".

2007 January 7 - Jerusalem Post on 'Nuke Iran' Plans

Israel officials refused to comment on, or deny, the Jan 7 Sunday Times 'nuclear' report (see below).

Notice the attention paid to the
'Iranian Threat' by this newspaper:

The Jerusalem Post article is in a section of its website titled 'Iranian Threat'. The 'Iranian Threat' section has equal prominence with about 25 major divisions such as
'Opinion', 'Business', 'International', 'Sports', and 'Middle East'. However only one section, 'Iranian Threat', is red: all the others are blue. (Update: On July 14, 2007, the 'Iranian Threat' section has been changed to blue.)

2007 January 6 - Tactical Nuke Trial Balloon

Israel's plan to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons has been leaked.

  1. Conventional laser-guided bombs would “tunnel” toward each target.

  2. Tactical “Mini-nukes” with yield dialed to as little as one kiloton would then immediately be fired into the tunnel, exploding underground to reduce the radioactive fallout.

Three sites south of Tehran are named: Nantaz, a uranium conversion facility near Isfahan, and a heavy water reactor at Arak.

2006 November 9 - Status

The antiwar US election sweep, the sacking of Rumsfeld, the probable withdrawal of John Bolton as ambassador to the UN, and the backpedaling by many neocons reduced the likelihood that the buildup documented below will soon culminate in an attack on Iran. However, continue to watch for an incident like the August, 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident 1, 2 or the sinking of the USS Maine 1 , 2 . This source thinks "war is scheduled to start between February and April of 2007". (See last sentence.) Somewhat after the elections but keeping the inevitable temporary spike in oil prices from affecting the 2008 presidential elections.

2006 October - Massive Sea and Air Power

Three US naval Strike Groups will be in place opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea by October 21. Guided missile destroyers, ..... MASSIVE. Specifics here.

So now might be a good time to refresh one's memory about "false flag" incidents.

2006 Dec 07 - US to attack Iran by 2008

"It is more likely than not, in the next two years, that President Bush and Vice President Cheney will direct an attack on Iran", Daniel Ellsberg said at a news conference for the Right Livelihood laureates in Stockholm on Wednesday.

Ellsberg is of four recipients of this year’s $273,000 'Right Livelihood Award', often dubbed the "Alternative Nobels".

Ellsberg, 75, was honoured with the prize for leaking the so-called Pentagon Papers, which indicated the US government had deceived the public about whether the Vietnam war could be won and the extent of casualties, and for his continuing efforts to expose government deception worldwide.

"Don’t do what I did, don’t wait until the war has started before you tell the truth with documents.", Ellsberg urged Washington insiders.

2006 Oct 16 - Nuclear Strike Is Still on the Agenda

Why is this happening??

More here.

2006 Sept 26 - Why Bush Will Nuke Iran

Full article here.

2006 Sept 19 Israeli Expert: Attack on Iran Would Have to Involve Nukes


2006 Sept 14

Neocon Charles Krauthammer argues for a preemptive aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  He enumerates costs of the attack and then the costs of doing nothing, which he suggests are equal if not greater.  He concludes that the decision is no more than a year away.

2006 Sept 2 -

News columnist Michael Coren of the Toronto Sun said:
"something revolutionary has to be done within months -- if not weeks -- ...................... a limited and tactical use of nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's military facilities and its potential nuclear arsenal."

2006 August 23 -

The chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Peter Hoekstra of Michigan, released a brochure titled "Recognizing Iran as a Strategic Threat: An Intelligence Challenge for the United States".

Within the title and likewise within the document is the cart-before-the-horse thinking:
We know Iran is about to nuke somebody -- we just don't have the evidence.

2006 August 21 - US Helped Plan Lebanon War as Precursor to Iran

2006 June 10 - Trapping Iran with a Tripwire

Here's the plan.

  1. We get Iran to stop enrichment by offering carrots (like Clinton did with North Korea in 1994).

  2. We find that Iran has violated the Agreed Framework (like Bush did with North Korea in October 2002).

  3. We nuke them.

Absurd? Spend some time with the reference, and see if you still think so.

2006 April – Paper: Osirak Redux?

A very well researched and highly regarded study “Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilitieshere.

2005-2006 - Iran May try to Wipe Israel off the Map

So most of the reporting on what was said at this conference is not an effort to get at the exact truth: it is more about demonizing this guy.

2006 May 19 - Iran Requires Visible Marking of non-Muslims

2006 May 7 - Iran Oil Bourse will use Euros, not Dollars

2006 May 04 - You're Fired

2006 April 17 - Grand Theft Babylon: The Heist of the Century

2006 April 10 - The Iran Plans  (by Seymour M. Hersch in The New Yorker)

2006 April 09 - Completely Nuts

2006 April 4 - US Strike on Iran: it's when, not whether

2006 Feb 20 - We will nuke Iran.

2006 Jan 3 - Nuclear War Against Iran

2005 May - Backgrounder on Earth Penetrating Weapons

First see a very lucid 3 minute must-see video on earth penetrating weapons.

From this scientifically accurate web page (with references) we find that:

2004 Dec - Debunking the nuclear “bunker buster”

2004 Oct 26 - A US Naval Disaster?

2001 Jan / Feb - Low-Yield Earth-Penetrating Nuclear Weapons

Odds Are:

On March 22, 2008,

betting odds of "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Mar 2008" are about 1.5%.

but betting odds of "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2008 " are about 25%.

  1. Go here.

  2. Click on the THE PREDICTION MARKETS | Current Events.

  3. Click on Iran.

  4. The 'Last' price on the right can be taken as a liklihood.

  5. Click "AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC08"or similar, to see how this liklihood has varied over the life of the contract.

This page assembled by: Frederick N. Chase