TimingCube Services
General Questions
TimingCube has developed an innovative investment system we call Trend Timing. At the heart of the system is our investment research engine, a 100% mechanical, unemotional market timing Model that is both powerful and simple to use. This proprietary stock market trend Model, based primarily on price and volume action of the Nasdaq Composite Index ^ixic , uniquely recognizes the broad predominant stock market trend. It provides investors with an effective "all-weather" alternative to Buy and Hold investing. Our original QQQQ timing Model was developed using years of market data and experience and, having been backtested to 1989, went live in June 2001. QQQQ qqqq (previously QQQ) is the exchange traded fund (ETF) which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index ^ndx. Our stock market analysis and investment research has established the high correlation between our Nasdaq Composite Index driven Model and other major market indices, US and International, causing us to extend our reach from strictly QQQQ timing to other indices such as the Russell 2000 ^rut and the S&P 500 ^gspc .The Model is intended for serious long-term investors, not frequent traders or speculators. On average, only three to five signals are issued in a typical year. Over the past 15 years, acting on these signals has proven extremely profitable, as shown on our Results page. For complete accountability of our stock market analysis, our trades and returns are independently verified and tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest and TimerTrac.com. Check our Independently Verified Track Record for details.
Based purely on changes in market conditions, TimingCube's Model will generate a Buy, a Sell or a Cash signal. Once a signal has been issued, it remains in effect until a new signal invalidates it. Our Model is run daily after the New York stock market closes, and we update our Web site and Signal by Phone message accordingly by 7:00 pm ET that same day. If a new signal is triggered, in addition to posting it on the "Current Signal" page, TimingCube also automatically sends e-mail notifications to all active subscribers. That way, you don't have to check the site every day to ensure that you are not missing out on a new signal. As a subscriber, you can log in to the site at anytime to check the current signal, up-to-date results, as well as other subscriber-only information such as the latest Weekly Updates.
We recommend using diversified investment vehicles that mirror major market indices such as the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, and the S&P 500. These three indices, which we track on our site, represent different segments of the stock market, and as such, offer additional diversification choices for our subscribers. The Nasdaq 100 Index represents 100 of the largest and most actively traded companies on the Nasdaq Stock Market and is renowned for its dynamic technology slant. The Russell 2000 Index corresponds to 2,000 small-cap companies. The widely followed S&P 500 Index embodies 500 of the largest companies on the US stock market. Each of these indices is tracked by various Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds (see the What to trade? section for a summary of funds). Since our Model, unlike many specific shorter term indicators, is a proxy for the broad stock market, it is highly correlated with many other US and International indices and securities. In fact, the one single Model and signal captures all the major US and International stock market indices as demonstrated in the Quarterly US and Quarterly International Performance Reports on the "Results" page.
When our Model issues a Buy signal, it means it is time to buy stocks through one of the index tracking investment vehicles.
When the signal becomes a Sell, we then liquidate our long position and either keep the proceeds in cash (or in a money market fund) or take a short position, depending on the level of risk you are willing to take (more on this in our Strategies page).
A Cash signal is automatically issued by our Model if the Nasdaq Composite Index moves against our current position by more than 9% from our Buy or Sell entry point. This is designed to keep any losses to a reasonable minimum from the entry point when we are most vulnerable, as no timing Model will always be 100% right. Once the Nasdaq Composite Index has advanced 7% or more from our entry point, the maximum drawdown limit is ratcheted-up to 15% and the Cash signal becomes a trailing stop. This means that from then on, if the Composite declines 15% from its most recent closing high on an active Buy signal, or moves up 15% or more from its recent closing low on an active Sell signal, a Cash signal will be issued and you will be notified. When a Cash signal is generated, you should liquidate your current long or short investments and keep the proceeds in cash or in a money market fund until a new Buy or Sell signal is issued.This reference
page places a wealth of detailed information at your fingertips
including your best investment choices, how to implement strategies,
and definitions for many of the specialized investing terms used on our
Web site. In addition to ETF trading we also detail mutual fund trading
strategies implemented with the Profunds and Rydex fund families.
Beyond trading QQQQ
qqqq (the Nasdaq 100
index tracking stock) this page lists many alternative investments.
To facilitate your search of past articles we provide a topical index
for the Trend Timing School editorials and FAQ
of the Week answers.
What to trade? |
Our site follows and reports on the Nasdaq 100 ^ndx index itself instead of a particular Nasdaq 100 index fund, plus the Russell 2000 ^rut, and the S&P 500 ^gspc, which are some of the largest, most respected, and widely traded indices. While all three generally move in unison, they represent slightly different facets of the market, with the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (Nasdaq 100), a broad medium/small-cap stock index (Russell 2000), and a broad large-cap index (S&P 500), they present a further opportunity to diversify, or optimize, depending on individual preference.
Index tracking
investments mostly fall in two categories: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
and mutual funds.
Our investments of choice are ETFs, for their inherent diversification,
liquidity, and low-cost. Similar to stocks, ETFs can be bought long,
sold short, on margin, and can be traded at the market open the day
following a signal change. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are usually
traded at the market close. However, since mutual funds can be found to
match, double, inverse, and double inverse performance objectives for
most indices, they can be used to implement all four strategies and are
viable alternatives for qualified retirement accounts. Both ProFunds and Rydex offer fund
families that are suitable for that purpose.
Investing with
index ETFs
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Nasdaq 100
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Russell 2000
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S&P 500
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Index
ETF
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Investing with
index mutual funds
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Daily Objective
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Nasdaq 100
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Russell 2000
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S&P 500
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Match
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Double
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Inverse (The daily objective of a
bear mutual fund that seeks the daily performance of increasing in
value when the tracked index declines, and decreasing in value when the
index rises. Buying such a fund is equivalent to being short (selling
short) the index. On a day the index moves up 1%, such a fund should
decrease by 1%. On a day the index moves down 1%, such a fund should
increase by 1% (all before fees and expenses).)
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Double Inverse (The daily objective of a
bear mutual fund that seeks the daily performance of increasing in
value twice as much as the tracked index declines, and decreasing in
value twice as much as the index rises. Buying such a fund is
equivalent to being short on full margin (selling short on margin) the
index. On a day the index moves up 1%, such a fund should decrease by
2%. On a day the index moves down 1%, such a fund should increase by 2%
(all before fees and expenses).)
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Note 1:
the lists of indices, ETFs and mutual funds in this section are by no
means exhaustive, but they have worked well for us and our subscribers.
As evidenced by the high correlation shown in the
Quarterly
US Performance Report and
Quarterly
International Performance Report that can be downloaded from the "Results"
page, there are many other investment vehicles to use with our
strategies and signals. The table below shows some ETFs available in
the US, which track all the indices in the reports. For our
International subscribers looking to apply our strategies and signals
to their local stock market, we recommend verifying the correlation,
and then finding the local investment vehicle that tracks their
country's main stock exchange.
Note 2: if your company's 401(k) retirement plan does
not offer any of the ETFs or mutual funds we list, you should implement
Strategy 1 using the available investment vehicle that is most closely
correlated to the Nasdaq 100
^ndx, Russell 2000
^rut or S&P 500
^gspc index. Your
returns will not be as great as if you used leverage but you should
still significantly outperform a Buy and Hold approach over the long
run.
Alternative
ETFs for diversification
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Additional Index/Country/Market
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ETF
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Name
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Dow Jones
Industrials
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DIAMONDS
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Wilshire 5000
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Vanguard Total
Stock Market VIPERs
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Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index
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Semiconductor
Holders Trust
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France
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iShares MSCI
France Index
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Germany
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iShares MSCI
Germany Index
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UK
|
iShares MSCI UK
Index
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Hong Kong
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iShares MSCI
Hong Kong Index
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Japan
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iShares MSCI
Japan Index
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Canada
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iShares MSCI
Canada Index
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Implementing the
strategies
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Signal
|
Nasdaq 100
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Russell 2000
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S&P 500
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Strategy
1
Long Only |
Buy
|
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Sell
or Cash |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
|
Strategy
2
Long Only with Margin |
Buy
|
|||
Sell
or Cash |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
|
Strategy
3
Long & Short |
Buy
|
|||
Sell
|
||||
Cash
|
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
|
Strategy
4
Long & Short with Margin |
Buy
|
|||
Sell
|
||||
Cash
|
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
Cash
or Money Market Fund |
When to trade? |
If your selected investment vehicle is an ETF, your order should be placed before the market opens on the next trading day. Since ETFs trade like stock, they can be bought or sold at market open. All performance results posted on this site assume the trading occurs at market open, the day after a signal change. This is the only realistic way to measure performance, as you could not possibly have acted on the new signal any earlier.
If your selected investment vehicle is a mutual fund, your order should be placed before or during the trading hours of the day following the signal change. Since most mutual fund families only calculate the Net Asset Value (NAV) at the end of each trading day, this ensures that you will buy the mutual fund at the first available price. This is a significant difference between ETFs and mutual funds: whereas you can buy an ETF right at market open, you in effect have to wait until market close to buy an equivalent mutual fund. Over time the performance impact of the one day delay should be fairly minor but, nevertheless, you should be on the lookout for fund families that are starting to offer intra-day mutual fund pricing.